Integrating diverse methods to understand climate-land interactions in East Africa   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Jennifer M. Olson  Gopal Alagarswamy 《Geoforum》2008,39(2):898-911

The questions of how land use change affects climate, and how climate change affects land use, require examination of societal and environmental systems across space at multiple scales, from the global climate to regional vegetative dynamics to local decision making by farmers and herders. It also requires an analysis of causal linkages and feedback loops between systems. These questions and the conceptual approach of the research design of the Climate-Land Interaction Project (CLIP) are rooted in the classical human-environment research tradition in Geography.This paper discusses a methodological framework to quantify the two-way interactions between land use and regional climate systems, using ongoing work by a team of multi-disciplinary scientists examining climate-land dynamics at multiple scales in East Africa. East Africa is a region that is undergoing rapid land use change, where changes in climate would have serious consequences for people’s livelihoods, and requiring new coping and land use strategies. The research involves exploration of linkages between two important foci of global change research, namely, land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change. These linkages are examined through modeling agricultural systems, land use driving forces and patterns, the physical properties of land cover, and the regional climate. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are being used to illustrate a diverse pluralism in scientific discovery.  相似文献   

Models of natural and human dynamics in forest landscapes: Cross-site and cross-cultural synthesis   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Miguel F. Acevedo  J. Baird Callicott  Donald Lyons  Judith Rosales  Magdiel Ablan  Giorgio Tonella  Emilio Vilanova 《Geoforum》2008,39(2):846-866

We synthesize the study of coupled natural and human systems across sites and cultures through a process of simplification and abstraction based on multiple dimensions of human-nature connectedness: satisfaction of basic needs, psycho-cultural connectedness and regulation of use of natural resources. We thus provide both a place-based and general understanding of value-driven anthropogenic environmental change and response. Two questions guide this research: what are the crucial stakeholder values that drive land use decisions and thus land cover change? And how can knowledge of these values be used to make decisions and policies that sustain both the human and natural systems in a place? To explore these questions we build simulation models of four study sites, two in the State of Texas, United States, and two in Venezuela. All include protected areas, though they differ in the specifics of vegetation and land use. In the Texas sites, relatively affluent individuals are legally converting forests to residential, commercial, and industrial uses, while in Venezuela landless settlers are extra-legally converting forests for purposes of subsistence agriculture. Contemporary modeling techniques now facilitate simulations of stakeholder and ecosystem dynamics revealing emergent patterns. Such coupled human and natural systems are currently recognized as a form of biocomplexity. Our modeling framework is flexible enough to allow adaptation to each of the study sites, capturing the essential features of the respective natural and anthropogenic land use changes and stakeholder reactions. The interactions between human stakeholders are simulated using multi-agent models that act on forest landscape models, and receive feedback of the effects of these actions on ecological habitats and hydrological response. The multi-agent models employ a formal logic-based method for the Venezuelan sites and a decision analysis approach using multi-attribute utility functions for the Texas sites, differing more in style and emphasis than in substance. Our natural-systems models are generic and can be tailored according to site-specific conditions. Similar models of tree growth and patch transitions are used for all the study sites and the differing responses to environmental variables are specified for each local species and terrain conditions.  相似文献   

Coupled and complex: Human-environment interaction in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA     

David Bennett  David McGinnis 《Geoforum》2008,39(2):833-845

Complexity theory has received considerable attention over the past decade from a wide variety of disciplines. Some who write on this topic suggest that complexity theory will lead to a unifying understanding of complex phenomena; others dismiss it as a passing and disruptive fad. We suggest that for the analysis of coupled natural/human systems, the truth emerges from the middle ground. As an approach focused as much on the connections among system elements as the elements themselves, we argue that complexity theory provides a useful conceptual framework for the study of coupled natural/human systems. It is, if nothing else, a framework that leads us to ask interesting questions about, for example, sustainability, resilience, threshold events, and predictability.In this paper we attempt to demystify the ongoing discussions on complexity theory by linking its evocative and overloaded terminology to real-world processes. We illustrate how a shift in focus from system elements to connections among elements can lead to meaningful insight into human-environment interactions that might otherwise be overlooked. We ground our discussion in ongoing interdisciplinary research surrounding Yellowstone National Park’s northern elk winter range; a tightly coupled natural/human system that has been the center of debate, conflict, and compromise for more than 135 years.  相似文献   

Sequence stratigraphy and inferred relative sea-level change from the onshore British Jurassic     

Stephen P. Hesselbo 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》2008,119(1):19-34

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Effective livelihood adaptation to climate change disturbance: Scale dimensions of practice in Mozambique   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Henny Osbahr  Chasca Twyman  W. Neil Adger  David S.G. Thomas 《Geoforum》2008,(6):1951-1964

Natural resource-dependent societies in developing countries are facing increased pressures linked to global climate change. While social-ecological systems evolve to accommodate variability, there is growing evidence that changes in drought, storm and flood extremes are increasing exposure of currently vulnerable populations. In many countries in Africa, these pressures are compounded by disruption to institutions and variability in livelihoods and income. The interactions of both rapid and slow onset livelihood disturbance contribute to enduring poverty and slow processes of rural livelihood renewal across a complex landscape. We explore cross-scale dynamics in coping and adaptation response, drawing on qualitative data from a case study in Mozambique. The research characterises the engagements across multiple institutional scales and the types of agents involved, providing insight into emergent conditions for adaptation to climate change in rural economies. The analysis explores local responses to climate shocks, food security and poverty reduction, through informal institutions, forms of livelihood diversification and collective land-use systems that allow reciprocity, flexibility and the ability to buffer shocks. However, the analysis shows that agricultural initiatives have helped to facilitate effective livelihood renewal, through the reorganisation of social institutions and opportunities for communication, innovation and micro-credit. Although there are challenges to mainstreaming adaptation at different scales, this research shows why it is critical to assess how policies can protect conditions for emergence of livelihood transformation.  相似文献   

Oxygen Isotope Evidence for Chemical Interaction of Ki lauea Historical Magmas with Basement Rocks     

Garcia  Michael O.; Ito  Emi; Eiler  John M. 《Journal of Petrology》2008,49(4):757-769

Klauea historical summit lavas have a wide range in matrix ¹⁸O_VSMOWvalues (4·9–5·6) with lower values in rockserupted following a major summit collapse or eruptive hiatus.In contrast, ¹⁸O values for olivines in most of these lavasare nearly constant (5·1 ± 0·1). The disequilibriumbetween matrix and olivine ¹⁸O values in many samples indicatesthat the lower matrix values were acquired by the magma afterolivine growth, probably just before or during eruption. BothMauna Loa and Klauea basement rocks are the likely sources ofthe contamination, based on O, Pb and Sr isotope data. However,the extent of crustal contamination of Klauea historical magmasis probably minor (< 12%, depending on the assumed contaminant)and it is superimposed on a longer-term, cyclic geochemicalvariation that reflects source heterogeneity. Klauea's heterogeneoussource, which is well represented by the historical summit lavas,probably has magma ¹⁸O values within the normal mid-ocean ridgebasalt mantle range (5·4–5·8) based on thenew olivine ¹⁸O values. KEY WORDS: Hawaii; Klauea; basalt; oxygen isotopes; crustal contamination  相似文献   

Background concentrations of elements in surface soils and their changes as affected by agriculture use in the desert-oasis ecotone in the middle of Heihe River Basin,North-west China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Yong-zhong Su  Rong Yang 《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》2008

The concentrations of twenty four chemical elements in the surface layer of natural desert soils and the cultivated farmland soils were measured at a desert-oasis ecotone in the middle of Heihe river basin, north-west China. Background values were estimated for (a) major elements (Si 335.3 g kg^− 1, Al 49.4 g kg^− 1, Fe 19.1 g kg^− 1, Ca 29.4 g kg^− 1, Mg 8.9 g kg^− 1, K 20.1 g kg^− 1, Na 17.5 g kg^− 1 and P 0.338 g kg^− 1), (b) heavy metals and non-metals (Cr 55.8 mg kg^− 1, Mn 404.8 mg kg^− 1, Ni 17.7 mg kg^− 1, Cu 5.1 mg kg^− 1, Zn 33.7 mg kg^− 1, Pb 15.5 mg kg^− 1 and As 5.2 mg kg^− 1) and (c) other trace elements (Ti 2.0 mg kg^− 1, V 55.3 mg kg^− 1, Co 5.7 mg kg^− 1, Rb 82.4 mg kg^− 1, Sr 232.9 mg kg^− 1, Y 14.7 mg kg^− 1, Zr 194.9 mg kg^− 1, Nb 7.8 mg kg^− 1 and Ba 720.6 mg kg^− 1). After natural desert soil was cultivated for agricultural use, significant changes in element concentrations occurred under tillage, irrigation and fertilisation management. Compared to natural soil, the for the levels of Si, K, Na, Sr, Zr and Ba decreased, and no changes were observed for Rb, while the values of the other 17 elements increase in agricultural soil from 1.2 to 3.5 times. However, their absolute concentrations are still low, suggesting that the arable soil in this region remains comparatively a clean soil. The increased silt, clay and organic carbon content, under long-term irrigation, enriched the fine-grained materials, and application of fertilisers and manure contributed to the accumulation of most elements in arable soil. The accumulation of elements in agricultural soil increased with increasing cultivation years and extent of soil development.  相似文献   

Pervasive wetland flooding in the glacial drift prairie of North Dakota (USA)     

Paul E. Todhunter  Bradley C. Rundquist 《Natural Hazards》2008,46(1):73-88

This article describes a unique flood hazard, produced by the dramatic expansion of wetlands in Nelson County, located within the North American Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota, USA. There has been an unprecedented increase in the number, average size, and permanence of prairie wetlands, and a significant increase in the size of a closed lake (Stump Lake) due to a decade-long wet spell that began in 1993 following a prolonged drying trend. Base-line land cover information from the 1992 USGS National Land Cover Characterization dataset, and a Landsat TM scene acquired 9 July 2001 are used to assess the growth of the closed lake and wetland pond surface areas, and to analyze the type and area of various land cover classes inundated between 1992 and 2001. The open water profile in Nelson County changed from one marked by relatively comparable coverage of closed lake and wetland pond areas in 1992, to one in which wetland open water accounted for the vast majority of total open water in 2001. The bulk of the wetland pond area expansion occurred by displacing existing wetland vegetation and agricultural cropland. Producers responded to the flood hazard by filing Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC) claims and enrolling cropland in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), a federal land retirement program. Land taken out of agricultural production has had an enormous impact upon the agricultural sector that forms the economic base of the rural economy. In 2001 the land taken out of production due to CRP enrollment and preventive planting claims represented nearly 42% of Nelson County’s 205.2 K ha base agricultural land. The patterns obtained from this detailed study of Nelson County are likely to be the representative of the more publicized flood disaster occurring within the Devils Lake Basin of North Dakota.  相似文献   

干旱生态环境及水资源对全球气候变暖响应的研究进展   总被引：7，自引：5，他引：2  

邓振镛  张强  辛吉武  赵鸿  王全福  王鹤龄 《冰川冻土》2008,30(1):57-63

西北地区现代气候变化基本特征是冬暖夏干,采用脆弱度和影响指数方法定量评价了生态环境对全球气候变暖响应,重点阐述了西北现代气候变化对干旱生态环境和水资源这两个领域的影响.结果表明: 由于现代气候变干变暖的自然和人为因素的共同作用,导致我国西北地区的黄土高原、黑河流域、石羊河流域、甘南高原和黄河首曲的地域生态环境有不断退化的趋势.气候变干使渭河上游、黄河上游(洮河和大夏河)以及黄土高原中部7条主要河流的径流量呈明显下降趋势,引起水资源短缺.  相似文献   

气候变化对塔里木河来自天山的地表径流影响   总被引：21，自引：10，他引：11  

高前兆  王润  Ernst GIESE 《冰川冻土》2008,30(1):1-11

塔里木河水资源主要来自天山南坡两条源流,选择西段阿克苏河和中段开都河-孔雀河作为研究区.1956-2003年研究河源山区气温呈持续升温且降水波动增加的趋势,其中1995-2003年升温强劲,升温速率高出48 a期间平均的3倍以上;降水自1986年后持续增加,20世纪90年代较80年代增幅达18%,并显示出河源山区湿岛向塔里木盆地扩展.因高山缺少气象观测,出山径流过程变化可以综合反映中高山带的气候变化.塔里木河来自天山的地表径流在1986-2003年间持续增长,以冰川融水补给为主的库玛拉克河,1994年以来年径流量增加已在前期平均值基础上提升了一个台阶;开都河以降水径流补给为主,1986-2002年出现了观测记录以来的丰水期,并使1986年后博斯腾湖水位快速上升,恢复到1958年记录的最高水位以上.两河年径流变化趋势基本相似,但也显示有西、中段的气候变化局部差异,出现丰枯水期的不一致;然而,在近16 a升温过程中,年径流增长幅度和快慢相近.  相似文献